CFA Romania president sees recession risk persisting into 2027

Romania’s economy could contract by up to 1% in 2026, with the risk of recession persisting into 2027, Adrian Codirlaşu, president of CFA Romania, said on November 2, according to Agerpres.

Codirlaşu said his organization expected economic growth of between 0% and 0.5% next year, compared with forecasts of approximately 2% from other analysts. He added that the feedback received by CFA Romania suggested even its projection could be optimistic.

“This year we will have a recession. This year we came up with a growth estimate for next year between 0 and 0.5%, when the rest [of the analysts] say 2%. We are already receiving feedback that we are on the optimistic side,” he said at the Banking Forum organized by Financial Intelligence.

The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNP) has revised its economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to -0.4% and 1.7%, respectively, under the projections used to prepare the budget amendment. However, the recovery expected next year remains fragile conceptually, with private consumption forecast to increase by 1.9% year on year in 2027, despite projected real wage growth of 0.4%.

Codirlaşu said Romania’s economic outlook was affected by lower energy production and the evolution of consumption, particularly in services.

He pointed to the planned closure of the Cernavodă nuclear power plant, saying that reduced domestic production and lower net exports would weigh on GDP.

“We will see the data for the third quarter, but when the Cernavodă power plant is closed, and we import, so, on the one hand, our production decreases, on the other hand, our net export decreases, with both components of GDP, there is no way it can come out positive,” he said.

Codirlaşu added that historical experience suggested Romanian recessions typically lasted at least two years.

“My expectation for this year is a slight recession, somewhere up to a 1% decrease, and next year, if we are lucky, the economy will stagnate,” he said.