Romania’s 90-day fuel reserves may not guarantee diesel availability at the pump, analysis says

The risk of a diesel shortage is entirely possible, as Romania’s supply depends on exposed routes, and emergency reserves, officially presented as sufficient for 90 days, do not mean 90 days of diesel at the pump, according to an analysis by the economic think tank Frames.

"Romania is heading into winter 2026 with the most expensive diesel in history. A liter sells for an average of RON 10.90, almost 40% more than at the beginning of the year," Frames analysts underlined.

Most of the price increase occurred in the second half of the year. From June 30 until now, diesel has become RON 1.68 more expensive per liter, an increase of 18.2%, while gasoline has risen by RON 1.44, or 16.6%.

Diesel is the product most affected by the global crisis and the fuel on which freight transport, agriculture, and construction depend.

The increase at the pump directly follows international quotations. On October 22, Brent crude was trading at approximately USD 110 per barrel, up 58.5% from June 30. The causes are well known. The Strait of Hormuz is practically blocked, and a significant portion of global supply has disappeared from the market.

Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure and ships crossing the region are keeping prices high. The International Energy Agency warns that the global diesel shortage could last until around this time next year.

“We are not talking about a seasonal price increase, but a structural crisis lasting at least one year. Diesel at RON 11 is not a peak from which prices will fall in a few weeks, but the new normal for the coming winter. And the question for Romania is no longer just how much we pay, but whether we will have anything to buy,” said Adrian Negrescu, Frames manager.

The Ministry of Energy has announced several times this year that Romania has emergency stocks sufficient for 90 days. The figure is technically correct, with an important caveat. The approximately 2.04 million tons of emergency stocks are calculated based on 90 days of net imports, not 90 days of consumption at the pump, according to the same report.

More than half, or 1.08 million tons (53%), consists of crude oil and feedstock for refining, which must first be processed. Finished products total approximately 957,000 tons, of which only around 511,000 tons are diesel. Moreover, only about half of the stocks, equivalent to 45 days, are physically located in Romania. The rest is stored in other European Union countries and would reach Romania much more slowly in the event of a crisis.