Romania’s trade gap narrowing trend halts in June and July

Further improvements in the external trade balance depend on an economic recovery, while lower demand for investment in 2027, following the PNRR-driven rally in 2026, may also contribute.

Imports rose by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and 4.2% y/y in July, despite weaker domestic consumption, driven by investment and higher energy prices amid the war in the Middle East, after posting negative growth rates in the previous two quarters. Exports also increased at relevant rates of 4.7% y/y in Q2 and 4.1% y/y in July, helped by higher commodity prices.

The trade gap-to-GDP ratio has deteriorated marginally in June and July after steady improvement for more than a year. The rolling 12-month trade gap-to-GDP ratio edged up to 8.3% in June-July, reversing a downward trend that had brought the ratio down to 8.2% in May 2026 from 9.9% in April 2025.

Nominal GDP growth, at +7.2% y/y over the 12 months to June compared with a 0.8% contraction in real terms, has diluted the trade deficit-to-GDP ratio, as inflation in broad terms has been at the root of both higher imports and exports and stronger nominal GDP. Eventually, the narrowing of the trade gap was only stopped, rather than reversed.

In historic terms, Romania’s trade gap-to-GDP ratio has never been lower over the past five years, with the ratio exceeding 12% during the first stage of the war in Ukraine, when surging energy prices resulted in more expensive imports for Romania. The consumption exuberance in 2024 deteriorated the country’s external balance again, with fiscal consolidation reversing the trend from April 2025 onwards.

Further improvement in Romania’s external balance depends on the economic recovery - still uncertain at this point - and on the structure and drivers of that recovery.

Exports and imports expressed in volume rather than value terms confirm the general pattern of the nominal readings, albeit on a smaller scale. The rolling 12-month trade deficit was equivalent to only 5.1% of GDP at the end of Q2, up from 5.0% three months earlier but still an entire percentage point below the 6.1% recorded in June 2025. The ratio reached 6.3% in March 2025 and peaked at 6.9% in 2022.

Romania’s net imports accounted for 5.6% of total domestic demand for consumption and investment in Q2 this year, compared with 5.3% in Q2 2025, while the ratio was 4.9% for the rolling four-quarter period. This is consistent with increasing gross external indebtedness, particularly during periods of slow economic growth.